We should not ignore Tony Blair over Iraq- he is one of the few people talking sense

An article on the Telegraph website caught my attention this morning. It focused on Tony Blair telling people to listen to him on Iraq. He has been interviewed and stated that military intervention in Iraq with boots on the ground should not be ruled out. Both Barack Obama and David Cameron have ruled out such an option and as Tony Blair rightly points out, this is a mistake.

France recently began air strikes on key Islamic State targets  joining the US who have spent a significant part of this month attacking IS through similar methods. Such methods work in slowing the movements of IS troops and at times key buildings and compounds are destroyed delivering a critical blow to them. Britain sadly has not joined the US in doing so, instead to just opting to send humanitarian aid. While air strikes have not been ruled out, the government has said that they are not a priority at the moment.

A month or so ago David Cameron wrote in the Telegraph about the dangers of IS and how they could cause great danger to people on British soil. It sent a message that David Cameron was obviously considering militarily action of some kind (most likely air-strikes). But then next day military intervention was ruled out creating rather hazed policy idea where nobody really seems to know what to do.

Many Conservative backbenchers have called for air strikes, most notably the former Defence Secretary Liam Fox. But here we sit still waiting to see what response, if any, Britain will do. The US are making this issue a national priority with Congress recently agreeing to arm ‘moderate’ Syrian rebels.

This is where we come back to Tony Blair. While the war in Iraq in 2003 remains controversial, he has the experience of such matters and the comments he makes should be respected and considered.  Many people will just sigh when he appears on the news as he probably will do tonight calling for possible boots on the ground.

However, you should ask yourself what is Britain doing. We have seen one British citizen killed violently with another threatened. The US strategy is not great and President Obama has at times handled the situation badly but unlike us they have a strategy and it is delivering results.

Boots on the ground should always be a last resort and as Tony Blair has said it would be better if they were Iraqi forces or Kurdish soldiers instead of Western troops. After all these unstable states need strong forces to protect them from the likes of IS. But as several key and influential people are not starting to suggest the idea, such as Sir Graeme Lamb, a former Director of British special forces who has said it was time to ‘rule in’ the idea of British ground troops in Iraq.

It is too simplistic to blame the 2003 invasion of Iraq as a reason for the current turmoil. As we’ve seen over the past few years the region as a whole has grown incredibly unstable. Therefore instead of blaming Tony Blair , politicians  and the public alike should heed the words of the former Prime Minister. After all, as David Cameron wrote last month, IS is a very dangerous threat to Britain and no options should be ruled out to counter that threat.

 

Ben Callaghan

Donald Tusk’s appointment gives David Cameron a glimmer of hope

In November 2009, Herman Van Rompuy was selected to be the first full time President of the European Council, courtesy of the Lisbon Treaty.  A rather odd choice, Van Rompuy had only been Prime Minister of Belgium for a year and unsurprisingly he had his critics, most notably Nigel Farage who said he had the ‘charisma of a damp rag and the appearance of a low grade bank clerk’. Nevertheless, he plodded along in the role without showing any real flair and managed to secure a second term expiring in November this year. On Saturday EU leaders chose his successor.

According to the media Donald Tusk had been a long touted favourite to succeed Herman Van Rompuy. Unlike his predecessor, Donald Tusk will come into the role with much more gravitas from being Poland’s first Prime Minister being re-elected since the fall of communism and from representing the so-called ‘leading’ country in Eastern Europe. His reluctance to accept the job also suggests something rather different to the approach taken by other senior EU officials, most notably Jean – Claude Juncker who seemed power mad to become President of the Commission (There is probably very little doubt that Van Rompuy too was very keen for his role so he could take benefit from the EU ‘gravy train’). A man not driven by greed, his salary in Poland was only 240,000 zloty a year (£47,500 or 60,000 euros), yet it was not the 300,000 euro salary that convinced him but rather his wife (and the possibility he that may be defeated in Poland’s general election next year.

Yet what is important for us is how Donald Tusk’s appointment would benefit Britain. I am not overly optimistic that Lord Hill, David Cameron’s rather odd choice to be Britain’s next commissioner, will get a key spot with the EU looking to fill the top spots with strong female candidates (as with the appointment of Frederica Mogherini as Baroness Ashton’s successor) and Hill himself being seen in Europe as a Eurosceptic. With a strained relationship with Jean-Claude Juncker he now has to focus on Mr Tusk.

As leader of Poland’s centre right Civic Platform Party and somebody who strongly believes free markets, privatisation and minimal government interference he is very much a true conservative and should be a natural ally. Of course with David Cameron’s rather messy and bizarre European policy, it is unlikely to be that straight forward.

When he is feeling in an anti-Europe mood, David Cameron many times criticised  the EU freedom of movement rights which have helped many hardworking Poles settle in the UK since 2004. Their relationship has not always been great and to start David Cameron was against the appointment of Mr Tusk. This changed when David Cameron thought he might once again upset Germany, where Angela Merkel strongly supported Mr Tusk.

Since his appointment however, there has been some very good news for David Cameron. Mr Tusk has claimed that he cannot imagine Europe without Britain and it would be a ‘dark scenario’ if Britain left.  There is no doubt that Mr Tusk does not want to be the person who loses Britain, a very similar situation that David Cameron is in over Scotland. Mr Tusk has promised to reform the free movement rights, which is rather surprising as the whole idea is one of the founding pillars of the EU and secondly that Poland itself has benefited from greatly.

For the many of us who see Britain’s future to still be within Europe, a possible ‘reformer’ (we will have to wait and see) at the head is very encouraging. Whether or not Mr Tusk can fight off the federalist ideas of Mr Juncker or if he can convince other EU leaders to support reform, he is at the time representing a promising future in Europe.

Many Conservative backbenchers will still be unconvinced. Nigel Fargae will no doubt attack him verbally just like he did to Herman Van Rompuy when he takes the position in November. The fact that Mr Van Rompuy praised Mr Tusk as a ‘European statesmen’ will do little to help win over sceptics, but the nevertheless David Cameron can be now be for a short time, pleased. Who knows, it may even lead to a more organised and successful European policy.

Ben Callaghan

Jean- Claude Juncker – A man who could end Cameron’s political career

The so-called ‘political earthquake’ that occurred over the European elections has possibly delayed the process of Jean- Claude Juncker, the former Luxembourg Prime Minster, being named as the next President of the European Commission. The results of the Front National in France have caused President Hollande to state that urgent reform of the EU is needed (even though just a couple of months before he told David Cameron that it was not a prioroity) and UKIP’s victory has led to a much more Eurosceptic David Cameron. Tony Blair, who was prevented from becoming President of the European Council in 2008, has said that the results are a ‘wake- up call’.

The greatest victor from these results is our very own David Cameron. The rise of Eurosceptic behaviour will only help his push for reform in Europe ready for the proposed referendum in 2017. Of course, the decision on who will replace Jose Manual Barroso will have a serious role in this and with the rise of Eurosceptic fever, you would have thought this was a prime time for a reformer to take centre stage. Instead, we see the arch federalist or ‘raving’ federalist as Nigel Farage puts it lining up to take one of Europe’s prestigious positions.

His appointment would be disastrous for Cameron and arguably other European leaders who were hit hard by Eurosceptic parties. Farage will visit every TV station barking out the fact that Cameron is weak on Europe; Marine Le Pen will do the same in France. This is why Cameron and other leaders such as Mateo Renzi (who however, did very well in the European elections), Francois Hollande and both the Dutch and Hungarian Prime Ministers.

This brings us back to David Cameron. Juncker has previously publicly claimed that he is not favourable towards Cameron’s idea of reform. Over the past few days, the relationship between the two has seriously deteriorated with Juncker claiming that Cameron is blackmailing the European Union. It was claimed before the elections that Juncker, who is the candidate form the Centre Right European People’s Party (EPP) was not supported by Cameron as no British parties were represented in that bloc. After becoming Conservative leader, Cameron moved his MEP’s into the newly created European Conservatives and Reformists. Juncker stated that ‘the question is not whether we are supported in Great Britain’.

Therefore, if Juncker gets the job, which following the Lisbon Treaty, states that the candidate of the largest party should get the job (which is the EPP), Cameron has essentially signed away anyway chance of getting the significant reform in Europe that he wants. He was criticised for blocking his appointment too early. Instead, the sensible option would have been to play out it for a longer period and see how other governments responded.

With Angela Merkel’s backing, Juncker is most probably going to be the next President. Other names have been touted such as the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and head of the IMF Christine Lagarde. The problem with ‘outside’ candidates however, is that the European Parliament will not accept them. The Parliament has to accept the nominee by an absolute majority of 376. If the Centre Left Socialist and Democrats Group vote with the European People’s Party (which they may do to ensure a pro-EU commissioner) then Juncker is essentially safe. National leaders can attempt to block, but it is insure how successful they will be.

The problem for Cameron is that Juncker will make it difficult to reform Europe, a Cameron’s attitude to his possible appointment will not help matters. When interviewed, Conservative minsters state they are very certain they will get reform and therefore they will vote to stay in a reformed EU. However, if Juncker is appointed, ministers are going to have state how they would vote if they cannot reform Europe. If Cameron make a wrong move with this, especially with UKIP, a party which simply is looking indestructible at the current time, the consequences would be dire for him and the party.

Ben Callaghan

To save his party, Clegg must stand down by 2015

Four years ago Nick Clegg was arguably one of the most popular of all party leaders. His performance in the TV debates was lauded and there were even claims that the Liberal Democrats, judging by the polls, were in with a chance of significantly increasing their number in the House of Commons. Come the day after the 2010 General election, they actually lost seats. Nevertheless, they were a party who had grown considerably under Nick Clegg and they had reached a stage where they were strong enough to enter government. From then on, as I am sure you are aware; it has been a very steep downhill ride for the party.

The last recent election results from Thursday and Sunday were devastating for the party. The local elections since 2010 have not been good for the party, but there has always been a consensus that things can only get better. However, as recent results have shown, it is getting worse year by year. Losing MEPs in their strongholds such as the South West and finishing the night with just one (down from 12), it is not surprising by many of those who lost are raising serious questions over the party’s leadership.

Is Nick Clegg to blame for all the damage that happened last week? The simple answer is yes. While I have never been a real supporter of Nick Clegg, I do admire his determination for convincing people the pros of EU membership and respect his courage for debating with Nigel Farage, a debate who knew it would be impossible to win. However, he should really ask himself ‘should I have been so openly pro-Europe?’. Like Miliband, he is only offering a referendum if there is a transfer of power. As we saw on Sunday, the rise in Eurosceptic behaviour across Europe makes it seem very unlikely that any further treaty changes would be accepted by the member states. Britain itself would have to hold a referendum on a treaty and judging by the rise of UKIP, it would be surprising if it was accepted. Back to the idea of the referendum, Clegg could have taken a very similar approach to the Green Party, who rather embarrassingly beat the into fourth place on Sunday. They, while being openly pro-Europe, support the idea of having a referendum in the near future. Across the majority of Europe, not many people want to hear the words that Europe is good and beneficial and by doing so, Clegg has essentially made himself and his party extremely vulnerable.

To make matters worse, this morning Nick Clegg would have seen a leaked poll showing that there is a very good chance of losing his ‘safe’ seat of Sheffield Hallam to the Labour next year and this is the fear that is now spreading through the party. If Clegg loses his ‘safe’ seat, are any Liberal Democrats ‘safe’? No matter how hard parliamentary Liberal Democrat candidates try, I would be very surprised if they win any new seats. It is not surprising then that the list calling for Nick Clegg to resign, which includes many, parliamentary, is now around 300 and growing.

The sinking Liberal Democrat ship could be rejuvenated for the 2015 election however, only if Nick Clegg is not at the helm. Danny Alexander, Vince Cable and Ed Davey, all touted as possible replacements, would also be a disastrous move. As the vast majority of Liberal Democrat supporters will say, the past four years have not been a success, especially electorally. Therefore, the way forward for them is to essentially start afresh. They have to move on and anybody such as the people mentioned above, who are in the cabinet will not be able to do this. For example, Danny Alexander and Vince Cable have both played a significant role in the Coalition. It has to be somebody outside, somebody such as Tim Farron, the President of the Party.

This change though has to happen before the election. Clegg could still stay as Deputy Prime Minister, but he simply cannot lead them into the election. As one of Clegg’s critics said, it is the ‘messenger not the message’ that is the problem and I couldn’t agree more with them. Many Liberal Democrats are too calling for the coalition to break apart so the Liberal Democrats can rebuild themselves ready for the election. In fact, some Conservatives, notably Michael Frabricant writing in The Daily Telegraph believes now is the perfect time for the coalition to break away. It is unlikely that it will happen and there is very little chance that Clegg will go before 2015. He has stated he wants to stay until 2020, but if he is still leader come this time next year, they can expect a wipeout in the general election.

Ben Callaghan

There is no reason for David Cameron to resign if Scotland votes for independence

The debate over Scotland’s future is now in its final months. This year has seen a rather worrying surge of support for the ‘Yes’ campaign and this could continue to build as we get closer to the all –important day on the 18^th September. Yesterday I was glad that it became clear that David Cameron would not resign if Scotland voted to leave the Union. The idea has been floated around and I have always believed that there is no real reason for him to resign. The idea that he might was taken very seriously by some and Philip Hammond yesterday was forced to say that he would not try to become leader if a vacancy arose.

Cameron has also recently defended his decision to allow Scotland to have the referendum. He was completely right to do so. With the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) having a majority in Holyrood, kit would have been disastrous not do have offered one. The same would obviously happen if Plaid Cymru won a majority in the Welsh Assembly. Critics would say by doing so he has essentially destroyed the union. Instead he has respected the views of the Scottish people and the Scottish government who have a strong mandate for a referendum on Scotland’s future.

It is also important to look at the Better Together campaign. This is led by Labour’s former Chancellor Alistair Darling. This group fighting for a no vote is an all-party group consisting of members from all three of the main political parties. Gordon Brown too has recently come out fighting against independence. There is a general consensus from Westminster (excluding obviously the SNP MPs) that Britain is stronger together and that is how it remains. Therefore it is difficult to point the blame at the Prime Minister if the Union does fall apart. Instead, it was the failure of the all the parties and it would be very hypocritical for members of the Left calling for Cameron to resign if such a thing happens.

Cameron has rightly refused TV debates with Alex Salmond. He is not the one leading this battle. As he has often joked, most Scots would not want him speaking on their behalf. That does not mean he cannot have an opinion on the matter.

Hopefully, Scotland would vote to stay and then the pointing of blame can be avoided. The talk that has erupted that Cameron should resign is just ridiculous. No doubt he would be known as the man who broke up the union if they vote to leave, but really the blame should be shared across all the pro-Union parties. If there is a yes vote, the weeks following the 18^th September will no doubt be some of the toughest for Cameron, but he should not be criticised and forced to resign for respecting the views of the Scottish people.

Ben Callaghan

Farage shows his true character

In 2010, the UK Independence Party finished last, 26,000 votes behind Patrick Mercer in Newark. Mercer’s resignation on Tuesday evening was followed by immense speculation that it be beginning of Nigel Farage’s British parliamentary career. I for one thought he would run. It seemed fitting with his overall character, somebody hungry for the power and influence that Westminster brings. When he is interviewed on television, he is never afraid to say something controversial or certain politicians weak. He never trembles when attacking the European establishment. But events with Newark this week have changed his character. Twelve hours after stating he was interested in running, he rules it out. He claims he is not running scared, but his actions are very much out of character.

I think it is completely right the claims of cowardice Farage now faces and his arguments that he is not running scared do not add up. Farage claims he is no ‘opportunist’ and this is why he has not run. Think back to the last couple of years since UKIP’s surge began. Every time there is a scandal or mistake form Westminster, Farage appears ready to benefit from the situation. We’ve seen it recently with Maria Miller who was one of the first to call for her to resign. This is quite ironic now considering Farage himself is under intense scrutiny for ‘missing’ expenses. The party’s popularity has essentially grown form the opportunistic actions they have taken.

Why else did he not run? He did not want UKIP to be a one –man party. The fact is it is too late to change that. Without doing research, the vast majority of people will struggle to name more than two or three senior UKIP members. With Farage, the party would be nowhere. Whoever is chosen as the UKIP candidate for Newark will not win. They may be a local candidate but he or she will not carry the same gravitas and certain qualities that are attracting voters to Farage. There will be no UKIP MPs until Farage himself is elected (if he ever is). Farage himself caused this through his dictatorial leadership of his party. If anybody criticises him, they are kicked out of the position they held. Recently following claims by The Times over his expenses, UKIP members were told to essentially ‘shut up’ if they asked about money.

Politicians form his all over the spectrum attacked him. At this point I found myself (rather surprisingly) agreeing with former UKIP MEP Godfrey Bloom who stated that ‘He vacillated- and I think that made him look indecisive’. He did add however, that it may be part of Farage’s ‘cunning’ plan, but I am struggling to see that. Conservative MP Anna Soubry, a fierce Farage critic called him ‘frit’, a phrase that describes his actions perfectly.

His cowardice could have some serious repercussions. Looking ahead to the possible TV leaders debates next year, Farage would have a much stronger argument to be part of the debate if their support remained high and they actually had an MP. At the current time, there is now actual way how it can be justified for him to appear. In my opinion the Green party and George Galloway with Respect have a much stronger right.

It is disappointing not see him run, and most likely lose. The look on his face following defeat would have been priceless and could have slowed down the UKIP train. Nevertheless, this could very well begin to ‘burst’ the UKIP bubble. Fingers crossed, the Tories should the seat and with no Farage threat the scale of UKIP’s influence in the area would be much weaker. The events of the past few days have shown the public that Farage is not a strong leader. He could have avoided all of this by stating that he was not interested in running. Instead, it has shown him running scared and it presents us the the ‘true’ Nigel Farage.He will deflect criticism in every way and it will not affect him in the polls. But for those not hypnotised by his character, they will see the cowardice that lies within.

Ben Callaghan

Britain’s next Commissioner – Another European Headache for David Cameron

The Nick vs Nigel debate are over. David Cameron managed to avoid them without receiving too much criticism. But now he has a crucial decision to make regarding Britain’s future within the European Union. The majority probably wish that the topic of Europe would just fade away into the background. David Cameron too, no doubt, would want that. Instead, he has to start thinking about who is best suited to represent Britain on the European Commission. Whoever he chooses will be crucial in any re-negotiation talks between Britain and the EU and this puts Cameron into a serious dilemma.

Andrew Lansley – the best man for the job

The political views of the individual will most likely shape how influential Britain’s new representative will be. The Commission President, who too will be newly elected in the summer, hands out the portfolios. It is safe to say that following Baroness Catherine Ashton’s rather prestigious title as Vice-President of the Commission as well as being in control of Foreign Policy, Britain will not get one of the top jobs. There are still some important roles such as Trade that David Cameron would like to get his hands on.

He could choose a staunch Europhile. No doubt this individual would be welcomed with open arms into the Commission and could be rewarded with a significant portfolio which would make this person a much respected member. Here, though Cameron faces two problems. First, he will anger his own Eurosceptic backbenchers. Secondly, a Europhile is unlikely to want the same changes that Cameron wants. There has however, been very few names form this category that have expressed an interest suggesting that a Europhile is not the way Cameron is looking.

Then is it better to go for a Eurosceptic? He would no doubt please many backbenchers in the party and would actually show that he is serious about Britain wanting a better deal with Europe. The downside is, a Eurosceptic is unlikely to get a significant position. If Britain is not in one of these top roles, then it will make it much more difficult for the member to be influential. Peter Lilley and Owen Patterson have both been linked to the job form the Eurosceptic wing of the party. Peter Lilley in particular is a name that has pooped up on several occasions. A key man during the Thatcher and Major years, Lilley has the political experience that could make a good choice. He too has said that he will ‘relish’ the opportunity if it was offered to him.

There is the option of going with somebody who has not made a public view on Europe. Here, we could look at both Andrew Mitchell and Andrew Lansley. Both regarded as ‘heavyweights’ in the party with both having held government positions. With the Plebgate scandal still quietly continuing in the background, Mitchell may not be the favoured choice, despite claims that he is owed a favour from Downing Street. That leaves Lansley, somebody who has though been criticised for a lack of flair.

Lord Mandelson, who is a former trade EU Commissioner, has said that both Lansley and Mitchell would be more influential than Lilley or Patterson and he is probably right. The new Commission President is looking most likely to be the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg Jean – Claude Juncker, very much a strong supporter of the EU. He is very much aware of Cameron’s proposals and just the other he openly criticised them/

Therefore, it is best for Cameron to choose a ‘middle’ candidate. Both Andrew Mitchell and Andrew Lansley would be well suited. With the controversy still standing around Andrew Mitchell then Lansley would seem to be better suited. Despite a lack of flair, his experience as a civil servant and government minister should make him well suited to tackle the levels of bureaucracy in Brussels and possibly deliver the reforms that Cameron has continued to promise.

As Sir Menzies Campbell has said, it is a ‘lose-lose’ situation for Cameron. There is no move in which he would please the whole party. If he makes the wrong move, he could struggle to get any of the reforms that he wants. Looking into it, this is one of the biggest decisions that Cameron will make this year. It could also be one of the most difficult decisions he will make.

Make way for a new, strong and ‘weird’ Miliband

It has not been Ed Miliband’s most successful week as Labour leader. His response to the budget last week was filled with the usual Labour sound bites which resulted in a speech that simply was not relevant. It simply just reinforced the clear fact that he is not (and probably never will be) in a position to become Prime Minister. It has been very enjoyable flicking through the papers seeing the Labour leadership in crisis. Both The Times and The Telegraph stating that Miliaband is under pressure, the Financial Times saying that they are in a mess over pensions. There is also the very interesting poll that concluded that 41% of the electorate think Miliaband is weird (backed up on the video of him sniffing a woman on TV).

Almost four years after being elected, it is not surprising that there is anxiety on the backbenchers. Grassroots are also panicking. They are worried that their top man is simply not getting any better. The concerned in the party have now acted. They have essentially told Miliband to toughen up and not to ‘play safe’. They are anxious that the Labour leader is solely relying on the unpopularity of the government to win a majority. His populist policies too, according to the signatories of a letter sent to him, do not appeal to the widespread voting public. Now while this letter is not a direct criticism of his leadership, it does show the concerns within the party. With the general election looming, I think it is safe to say that these events are just the beginning. As we get closer, they will realise that Miliband is simply not suitable to be given the top job.

No doubt though Miliband will try to improve. Will he roll up his sleeves and become more aggressive? The answer is no. He will give it all he has got but frankly it does not seem to be in his character. His ‘Wallace’ image will always stay with him. After almost four years, it is very difficult to change the public opinion. He has failed to prove himself as a real leader and now time has essenatilly run out to change that.

After failing to find a Labour supporter who praises him, it is difficult to understand why he is still there. There have been a few quiet suggestions for a possible ‘coup’ with Alistair Darling being lined up. Soon, one could imagine a scene from The Thick Of It, with a senior Labour official stating that ‘Miliband is unelectable’. While it is unlikely, I am sure some members are saying that very quietly to themselves. Despite the pressure that will be put on him, it is unlikely he will change. Strong leadership does not seem to be one of his traits. As tensions grow, I cannot wait for the divisions in the party to emerge.

Ben Callaghan

Are Americans ready for another Bush?

If Jeb Bush gets elected as President of the United States in 2016 it would mean that the last three Republican Presidents would have been form the same family. There is also little doubt that the Bush family will become the most famous and influential political family in the world overtaking the Kennedys. But before we think about this we have to ask a simple question. Are Americans ready for another member of the Bush dynasty in the White House?

A poll has suggested that many Americans are not exactly thrilled by the prospect of another President Bush.  There is a general feeling that many Americans could be suffering from a so-called ‘Bush fatigue’.  This is essentially the problem that faces Jeb Bush.  He could shine on national television and build up support in the Republican Party. But many of the population may think he is just one Bush too many.

But for the people who are not suffering from ‘Bush fatigue’ they may notice his ability to succeed in elected office. From 1999-2007 he was the Governor of Florida and the only Republican to have served to full four year terms.  While in the post, he was praised for his improvements in health care, education and environmental services as well as improving the economy in the region.  If people cleared their minds of the past, they could see that Bush is somebody who could be well suited for the job.

In November, I wrote a piece about Chris Christie, a possible rival to Jeb Bush in 2016. Through the ongoing investigation ‘Bridgegate’ incident however, his chances may have suffered.  While it may be a loss to the Republican Party, Jeb Bush could fill his place.  In 2012 the Republicans suffered to win the support of certain groups such as the Hispanics and women.  This Hispanic vote in particular is now essential to win. Often regarded as the ‘sleeping giant’ of American politics, it was arguably their support to the Democrats that led to Obama winning re-election. This problem with the Hispanics arose when McCain and Romney were the nominees for the Republican Party. But if you look back to 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush did very well in winning over this group and this is something that Jeb could repeat come 2016. His wife, Columba Bush is of Hispanic origin and like his older brother, Jeb also speaks Spanish which is regarded as a key way to align themselves with this group. There are also his connections in Florida. From the famous events in 2000, this has been a crucial state which in 2012 carried 29 Electoral College votes. This is a must-win state for the Republicans and through his past connections, it would be surprising if they did not win it.

The main threat would be from Hilary Clinton. I would be amazed if she does not win the Democrat nomination come 2016. It is time the Republicans reclaimed the White House and to do so they need to pick the right candidate. If Bush runs and Christie can avoid the allegations than they already have two strong candidates not to mention others such as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Obama has not shown strong leadership during his tenure and only the Republicans can essentially deliver this. If the Republicans fail yet again, then serious questions about the credibility of the party will be asked. If the Tea Party agrees to support a ‘middle’ candidate such as Jeb Bush, then this strong sense of unity could lead them to victory. With Jeb Bush, the US could have a suitable President in waiting.  If people look at him as an individual, I am sure that he would be attractive to a large majority of the American population.

Ben Callaghan

Kerry has missed a perfect opportunity that Putin will not offer again

Kerry with Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister

John Kerry is a man with extensive knowledge in foreign affairs having chaired the Senate Commission of Foreign Relations from 2009 to 2013. When he was nominated by President Obama to succeed Hilary Clinton as US Secretary of State, he was regarded as a safe pair of hands and somebody who was suitably qualified for the role. He has shown his determination to solve international problems such as his success in the Iran nuclear talks. His handling of the situation in Ukraine in recent days however, raises one particularly interesting question. Why has Kerry refused to meet Putin to find a diplomatic solution?

The answer given to us by US officials is that there will be little to discuss if the referendum on Crimea’s future goes ahead on Monday. The outcome of this referendum is going to be very clear as David Aaronovitch repeatedly said on Question Time, it is going to be rigged.  The fact is, however, that this will not end on Monday. The ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych said in Russia yesterday ‘I will be back in Kiev’.  He, along with the Russian government and the pro-Russian people of Ukraine believe he is their legitimate President. If Russia get their way in Crimea (which is looking inevitable), attention will then shift back to Kiev and Eastern Ukraine where there will no doubt be heavy protests as Yanukovych will try to reinstate himself as the country’s leader.

It seems odd that Kerry would miss this opportunity. Putin is clearly in control of the situation and he is not going to repeatedly offer invitations to Kerry to talk about the crisis. There have been claims by the US that Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister was not authorised to lead talks, but this is quite difficult to believe judging by the amount of meetings he and Putin have been conducting.

Relations between Lavrov and Kerry were already strained and this latest snub will no doubt stretch them even further apart making a diplomatic solution more and more unlikely. On Monday, Crimea will vote on its future and if this happens, the US has said that diplomacy between the two nations would be hopeless.  That would therefore lead to economic sanctions as military intervention would not be supported by the US or the EU.

But then another question has to be asked. Is it in the countries interests to impose sanctions? For the US it probably is but how much pain can they inflict? There have been talks of freezing assets of wealthy Russians in the West. This could be very painful and Putin himself has noted this telling those with assets in the US to relocate before the freeze can be put in place. Another plan that is being discussed is missing the G8 Summit that is to be held in Sochi. However, this will do very little damage to Putin.

The EU will unlikely support such an approach with many countries, including Germany, relying on Russia for gas and this is why Putin is in a very powerful position.  He knows the power that Russia has over many European states and relishes having this power.  Kerry however, needs the strength to overcome this. Kerry needs to continue down the diplomatic path no matter what happens in Crimea on Monday as it will not be the end. It would be very surprising if Putin offered such an opportunity again. But if he did, Kerry must not miss it.

Ben Callaghan

Boris Johnson – Will he or Won’t he?

The news that Boris Johnson is still unsure whether to stand in 2015 is back in the limelight.  He has ruled out returning to Parliament before the election amid claims that George Osborne was pressuring him to do so by offering him the role of Chairman of the Conservative Party.

Mr Johnson’s political future at this point is very hazy. All we know is that he will remain as mayor of London until 2016. But that does not stop him seeking a way back into Parliament. If he decided to run, there is no doubt whatsoever that he would be elected, as he would be given one of the safest Conservative seats in London.  Cameron has said that when he returns he would immediately join the cabinet (of course this depends on a victory in 2015). Therefore, has Boris really got anything to lose?

As an ambitious man, he will most likely as we speak be eyeing up the position of leader. While he will have no problem being elected, he may face trouble being elected leader (if the position arises). He is respected by the majority of the party, and shares his ideology with many of them too – a liberal, who like Cameron will help modernise the party and attract a wider range of voters.

But there is the issue of his ‘silly’ behaviour which has made him a popular figure with the people, but it is not sure how well it would go down in the House of Commons.  Maybe come 2015, we may see a more ‘calm’ Johnson which many may find a more attractive quality for a Prime Minister.

How would the public react to him as leader? I think here we will get mixed reviews.  Essentially regarded as a ‘celebrity’ icon by the British public, there will no doubt be support for him as a possible Prime Minister. Who knows, his liveliness and humour may make the office of Prime Minister more attractive and spurge a new interest in politics.

There are of course, many who are sceptical of him. His appearance on TV shows such as Have I Got News For You have shown a side to him you would not necessarily trust as a senior political figure. Also his affairs and his overall character are something many people would not want to see in Downing Street.  Despite this, he has proven himself a very good politician, somebody who is likeable and can get their message across. As an ‘outsider’ from Parliament, he very well may be the ideal man for the job. George Osborne, Teresa May and Jeremy Hunt could all see themselves in Number 10. He could bring some new life to the party and when the position arises, Boris will just have to prove himself that he is leadership material. Of course, we still do not know what his plans for the future are.

Ben Callaghan

The way we tackle human rights in Africa is simply not working

Africa, as I am sure you are aware, is a continent with a very dubious human rights record.  While many countries have improved such as South Africa, there are a number of countries that appear in the news for the very wrong reasons. For instance, we see political corruption in many of these countries, most notably Zimbabwe and we also see the passing of laws that are hostile towards certain groups within society. Uganda, is the most recent of these countries to have passed a controversial piece of legislation.

On Monday, the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni signed a bill introducing tougher penalties for people who engage in homosexual activity. If found guilty, the punishment is life in prison. On a more positive note, the death penalty clause was removed but this has not removed the fear that now faces many in the country. One person said they were ‘very scared’ and said ‘I don’t know what going to happen’. Prior to this bill, homosexuality was already banned in Uganda. US President Barack Obama has called it a backward step and William Hague stated that he was ‘deeply saddened and disappointed’.

What happened yesterday however, was more disturbing. The national newspaper Red Pepper listed 61 known homosexuals under the headline ‘Exposed!’ and promised to name around 200 known homosexuals.  These included openly gay activists such as Pepe Julian Onziema and a Ugandan Hip-Hop star. The paper is not one of the most respected, but is read by a large portion of the population. It is unclear what the public response to this will be.

Britain has made it known that African nations that pass such types of legislation will be treated as human rights violators. Earlier last week, Britain and other Western nations urged the Ugandan president to veto the bill. He faced pressure from his own parliament to pass the bill.

Simply, condemning these pieces of controversial legislation seems to have a very small (if any) impact on the leaders behind it. The US Secretary of State John Kerry publicly criticised Nigeria for passing a similar law to that of Uganda. You could easily ask yourself what difference has it made? For years, there have been problems about Africa. When asked, politicians show their concerns, but we have not really seen any successful action in dealing with the problems.

In African countries such as Uganda, there are growing communities of a more liberal, Western – leaning middle class which is open to more alternative lifestyles. Therefore it can be said that African governments need to adapt to this growing class of people it is there to represent.

Is there any action that Western powers could take? In both the US and Britain there is growing support to cut of international aid with Uganda. The US gives Uganda $400 million a year while Britain gives £107 million. It seems unlikely though that this will happen as it is unclear what  may happen to these developing countries without international aid. One thing is clear. The current way of dealing with human rights in Africa is not working. To create results, a new method might be needed.

Ben Callaghan