Empires rise and fall; political parties have moments of dominance and ideology swings right and left. It can be said that right now there is a swinging to the right of the political pendulum that can be seen in; America with the Tea Party, Greece with Golden Dawn and finally in the UK with UKIP.
Many are right now looking at the above man and saying that he is a serious threat to the Conservative Party. Look again, the Conservative party is being labelled as a group of Etonian rich boys and this is how you want to solve that image with another public school educated rich boy. But before we get into why they aren’t a threat lets lay down two rules (1) For the sake of argument let’s not accuse them of being racist and (2) no personal attacks (from now on). Their policies however are fair game.
So let’s start with the most important plank of any agenda, the economy. At a time when the Conservative party has reduced the deficit by a third; UKIP has no specific plan (feel free to check their website) with regards to the economy other than reduce taxes. At a time when we still have a huge deficit to solve this party would reduce government income? I have respect for anyone prepared to argue on political issues but when your aiming to run the government I’d expect a plan with more detail than general promises and policies that could have been copied from Wikipedia. In America the Tea party ran on a tax reduction and power back to the people platform. They then proceeded to hold the government hostage over the budget almost causing a financial meltdown because they weren’t prepared to do that disgusting thing often referred to, as govern sensibly.
During the 2010 US Congressional elections, Tea party affiliated politicians won 40 seats in the House but fast forward to the 2012 US Presidential elections where they lost 20% of those seats. With the ‘success’ of the Government shutdown for the Tea Party further losing them popular support it can only be said that they peaked and are on their way out of politics. Now turn the camera back to UKIP, a party with a narrow policy range of anti-Europe and Immigration ideas and play the worst case scenario game.
They gain more seats in the European Parliament and maybe get a seat in the Commons before voters realise that they are a fringe movement with little to say on the majority of government issues, losing popular support they lose their Commons seat at the following elections with support going back to Cameron while at the European Parliament they only give Cameron more weight in getting powers back to Westminster and reducing European spending. In other words if Cameron shows leadership ability, UKIP flames out after helping push through what he wants anyway. Win for Cameron, loss for UKIP.