BUCF Reaction to By-Election

Admittedly I did not stay up to see the results from the By-election released live, however at roughly 9.30 this morning I recieved a jubilant phone call from the Vice Chair informing me of two things: one that he had just returned home from a rather enjoyable night (bravo that man!), and two the Tories had just thrashed, and no other word will do, THRASHED New Labour in Crewe. As the headline of the paper in the picture above shows, Labour had its majority wiped out… although I must say at least Camerons policies are better than his somewhat questionable choice in newspapers!

Back to the by-election…even in my wildest predictions I could not have imagined a Tory swing of 17% combined with a majority of near enough 8000, a result equal or just above that held by the late Gwyneth Dunwoody. The result as Cameron rightly states is ‘remarkable’ and is down to far more than a failing Labour party but more a representation of a renewed and resurgent Conservative party. Granted the Labour campaign in Crewe was abhorrent and a clear reminder of old party politics and the result was that the electorate dealt Labour a body blow which I’m sure they won’t forget for a while.

Edward Timpson showed typical courtesy in his acceptance speech praising the achievements and the service of Gwyneth Dunwoody whilst encouraging the residents of Crewe to look forward to the future with renewed optimism. As with the Local Election results the electorate have sent a clear message for Labour; you can’t rely on old scare tactics such as ‘A vote for the Tories is a vote for Thatcher’ you can’t use our ‘nasty past’ as a get out clause for your incompetence and you can’t expect that you can do what you like and people won’t vote Tory, which arguably was once the case.

The people can, will and are voting Tory as the result in Crewe showed with many thousands voting for us for the first time. The result of Labours incompetance is the first Conservative gain in a by-election since 1983 and the first from Labour since 1978. As Cameron and Praguetory have rightly said Labour’s campaign in Crewe was “backward and divisive”. Cameron went on to say that the result “in many ways was the end of New Labour”. I don’t believe currently that the latter remark is accurate, however if Labour don’t get their house in order quick sharp then it certainly will be. To conclude it is clear for all to see that the Tories have romped home in the Local Elections, Mayoral elections and now a by-election…for now theres only one missing and all our eyes should be on that final victory when ever Gordon gives us the chance to claim it.

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8 thoughts on “BUCF Reaction to By-Election

  1. Brilliant attitude. Instead of offering your own view of last nights events, instead of conceding you’re getting it completely wrong as a party you prefer to make light of what could be a potentially dangerous situation for the Labour leadership. Therein lies your downfall.

    Also incidently Mrs Smith from Number 23 probably doesnt vote Labour now anyway and if she does shes a minority and most importantly she cant rally MPs to bring on a vote of no confidence.

    You can make light of it much as you like but Gordon is treading on very thin ice, it’ll only take a few more to follow suit and hes in real trouble.

  2. Well as a former Brum Uni student, I’ll give my view. Especially as I live a stones throw from Crewe (although not in the constituency).

    The message loud and clear in the local press here is one thing, people voted for the Conservatives because they wanted Brown out. There were very few people, if any, who said they voted for the Conservatives because they liked what they stood for. It was the same on BBC Radio Stoke, the vast majority of people that rang in said that they were voting against Brown and not for Cameron.

    That is the problem the Tories are facing. Very few are voting for the Conservatives because they like what they stand for. They are all voting because they don’t like what Brown is doing. Should this all change, the Tories will find this election result will mean nothing and Timpson could be out in two years. But in saying that they made the bed for themselves with negative campaigning. All you heard in the local press was “send Brown a message on the 10p tax”, and not “vote for us because we can do this and that”. It was the same with the Lib Dems, they were voting on the 10p tax.

    The Crewe & Nantwich by-election was essentially a referendum on the 10p tax base rate being cut. The swing shows just how people felt about that. It wasn’t a show of support for the Tories, it was a huge vote against Labour. No-one seems to know what the Tories stand for, and I personally am yet to see any resurgance that hasn’t been created by Labour’s failings. That was the view coming from Crewe and Nantwich.

  3. Interesting analysis, i am not confident I entirely agree with it but I understand what you are getting at. It would be foolish of us not to acknowledge that alot of our support has come from the government getting it wrong on certain issues, particularly the 10p, but is that not how politics works?! The gov gets it wrong so you turn to the opposition? The point is we are offering the more attractive alternative and I am sure some voters arent quite sure what that alternative is but they are voting for it anyway!

    In regards to the lack of ‘a tory resurgance that hasnt been created by Labour failings’… we were well ahead in the polls long before this debarcle came about between 10-20 % in most cases. We have consistently done better than Labour in Local Elections even under Blair. So you are wrong about that one there is a genuine tory resurgance but yes we have profited from certainl Labour mistakes but that is by no means the only factor in our success.

  4. Of course it is difficult to analyse empirically if this was a protest vote against the Government or whether it was support for the Conservatives.

    The crucial difference though is that when protests votes happen, it tends to result in low turnout or a switch to the Liberal Democrats (a major reason why they do well at by elections).

    However, last night, saw a huge increase in the Conservative vote, this demonstrates many previous Labour voters switching directly to Conservatives. This indicates that voters now do begin to see the Conservatives as a Government in Waiting.

  5. Unlike Dan, I did stay stay up to watch the results come in, and had a little celebration when they did

    Though there might be some truth in the idea that people were voting against Labour rather than for Conservative, I am pretty confident that this cannot be the case in across the board. A swing of over 17% is indicative of something a lot more than just lost faith in Gordon Brown.
    Either way, I’m pretty sure the PM is in a nasty state today!

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