A Cynical Labour Campaign
We all know that the Labour campaign has been nasty and bigoted. Interestingly, amongst my Tory friends it’s noticeable that whilst posher friends are bemused/non-plussed with Labour tactics, Tories with working class roots are livid. But the campaign is more than nasty – it has been deeply cynical. Moving the writ before a funeral is bad enough, but when the hastily annointed successor is family of the deceased it feels like emotional blackmail. On the day of the funeral, the Conservative agents in Crewe agreed to Labour requests to a campaigning ceasefire – only to see Labour canvassers on the trail. That TKD felt comfortable attacking our candidate for being too posh and insufficiently local beggars belief. Wholly unrepentant about her murky campaign, she seems a deeply unpleasant and unattractive person.
The Lib Dems have been the electorate’s way of delivering bloody noses to the government at by-elections for as long as I can remember, but the proximity of today to the local elections (where they came a poor third) suggests that even they believe they can’t make it – and just like Clegg they’ve failed to make an impact. The Conservative candidate has remained calm under pressure and has done well to remain above the fray, but I hope he has some choice words if he wins. Some of his early literature was very good, but in the final week I’d have liked to see some local messages (e.g. 10 ways that Edward Timpson will stand up for Crewe) which would help secure more floating voters.
An old stat that sticks in my mind is that 9 out of 10 motorists think they are better than average drivers. I think you’d find similar levels of self-delusion amongst political activists when it comes to making election procedures. Another feature of self-delusion is predicting the future too narrowly. Experience teaches us that the colleague who says that he’ll have everything ready for the meeting is often mistaken. And so it is with political punditry. Take a look at some of the predictions for the Crewe & Nantwich by-election on UK Polling report where a groupthink consensus has gathered around a Tory majority of 2,000 to 5,000. Therefore, I am going to predict that the result will be outside these ranges. What do you think?
This was Guest Post 1/2 from Praguetory and will be followed by an election ‘Post Mortem’