Down but not out…

On Thursday night at Zizi restaurant in the Mailbox we got on to the political question on everyones mind… when is Hillary going to concede or more importantly should she concede? The basic consensus was that Clinton had lost the nomination but should not concede the race just yet. I went a little further and at the risk of rattling Cowdrills cage I say now what I said then, Clinton should remain in the race until the bitter end. I shall briefly discuss my reasoning for this.

Firstly Obama’s lead is not so decisive that he was able to surpass the 2025 delegates needed to win the nomination outright. Thus in my opinion the superdelegates should ask themselves why? It is at this juncture that they should exercise a degree of autonomy, after all that is their intended purpose, to break a deadlock not to slavishhly endorse polls results. Forgive me for saying but the superdelegates know more about politics and the requirements of elections than your ‘average joe’ voter and should keep that in mind. 

I believe the superdelegates reluctance to flock to Obama is in part down to a fear of charges of elitism from those who voted for him which would inevitably emmerge if they backed Clinton. This allied with the fear of a fall-out from within the traditionally loyal black community makes them cautious. Further they have a realisation that Obama isn’t winning in the ‘right places’ such as the decisive swing states. They also have an acceptance that Clinton leads Obama in most national polls and maintain a desire to wait until the end of the race to see if Clinton can regain any momentum in terms of the popular vote.

Delegate math is tricky, electoral math isn’t, Clinton is taking the big states and the swing states that matter in a Presidential election. The latest poll in West Virginia, a decisive swing states, shows a massive lead for Clinton. She has a 43-point advantage over Obama, 66 percent to 23 percent, according to a new survey from the American Research Group. This poll was conducted after Obama’s victory in North Carolina.

To add to this Kentucky polls don’t make much better reading for Obama with the most recent survey suggesting Clinton is ahead 62-28, a 34 point margin. This I believe would tip the popular vote firmly in Clintons favour giving weight to her claim she is the voters choice. I believe commanding victories in states such as Kentucky should ensure Clinton carries on right until the end. However I believe that the issue of Michigan and Florida has to be resolved. Contrary to popular opinion NEITHER candidate campaigned in Florida of Michigan, however after the Clinton victory she did travel to thank Floridians.

For me it is inconceiveable that the votes of over 5,163,271 people should be discounted for a stupid technicality this issue is bureaucracy gone bonkers if you ask me. When all the points raised about and more are considered, coupled with the fact that even Conservative commentators such as Rush Limbaugh concede Clinton would be the stronger candidate to face McCain and thus have endorsed Obama, Clinton should be the Democratic nominee.

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