Biggest lead for 20 years…

the number 16 

Following a week of dropping in the polls and analysts predictions looking pretty glum over the fortunes of the tory party, Labour have helped nudge the party back into a very respectable place with what has been seen as a disaster of a budget.  In fact Yougov’s post budget poll is reporting the biggest Conservative lead since 1987, with a 16% lead!!  If this was repeated in a general election this would provide a Conservative government with a majority of 122, similar to Blair’s position in 2002.  Though the poll lead is most likely to be inaccurate, a massive shift was also reported by ICM from a 3% lead to a 9%.  It will be very interesting to see if these are followed with an upward trend in future polls, what with Cameron’s family on the news and the speeches at Spring forum, there is probably a very strong chance of this.  This is exactly what Brown doesn’t need ahead of the locals and it will be interesting to see if these results are converted in votes, especially in the London mayoral election, such a win would continue to provide Cameron with the momentum he needs..  Perhaps the landslide needed for a Conservative government in 2010 is not that unrealistic…


12 thoughts on “Biggest lead for 20 years…

  1. As I posted last night on ConservativeHome:

    Not good enough Cameron should have the party on at least 103% by now.

    We should attack Labour more, he should also ‘man up’.

    He definetely shouldn’t let TV cameras into his home.

    If we really want to kick on we should appoint Michael Fallon as Shadow Chancellor.

  2. I don’t particularly like the direction that the Conservatives are going (not much of a centralist myself) but I suppose the stats don’t lie. I don’t mind Osbourne really, but I do think that he and Cameron come across as very smarmy…

  3. Keep up the good work, chaps. Especially important is to keep congratulating yourself and being absolutely positive the next election is in the bag. Also great to see you’ve abandoned political posturing for proper grassroot work in our “society.” It’s a pleasure to see… honestly.

  4. I think we’re still lacking THE policy. It’s also worth pointing out that the shift away from Labour hasn’t all gone to the Conservatives. We’ve been at 43 before. Nevetherless, good news.

  5. Of course we shouldn’t be getting complacent and there is always room to do better. But there is no reason to be ultimately pessimistic, considering a general election is probably, what two years away we are in a good position, but we are also in a position to lose that lead.

    WIth regards to letting the press into Cameron’s home I don’t think that was necessarily a bad move, so far the press have reported it quite well, but I guess only time will tell how it reflects in the polls.

    As for Policy, it is far too soon to be giving out specific Policy announcements, the Party has absolutely no idea what state the country will be in, the next time a general election is called; if the economy is in a bad way we need to have safe realistic accountable policies.

  6. The longer Brown leaves it, the better for us.

    Was that you on Con Home Jimmy?

    I reckon we should have Fallon at Chancellor, not to boost our poll ratings but because our shadow Cabinet should look like a government in waiting.

  7. Theo, I think you’re right. We are in a good position. However, as you suggest our lead could be narrowed quite easily, leaving no room for complacency. That said, I think our lead is firm and that it is now a question of how big?

    More forwardly, I think we need a policy or a few policies that represent a broader direction. This we still await, though the soundings from the conference look like a good base. The family stuff, broken society etc… is viable, but lacks a policy to spearhead the message (?)

    Moreover, we shouldn’t set the bar too high for Cameron at the next election. To win an outright majority would require a swing of historic proportions. Not in our wildest dreams can we expect to have the election in the bag. Such complacency could turn into fatalism if/when we suffer another defeat.

  8. It was indeed me PT, maybe Fallon should be in the Shadow Cabinet, but I do not think as Shadow Chancellor, maybe as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, perhaps move Mr. Hammond somehwere else with the SC.

    To tie it in with Joe’s point, I think Osborne can on occasion come across as ‘smarmy’. However, I would argue that this is a problem with all politician’s, a lot of them have an aloofness about them.

    I think though going back to Michael Fallon, and to a degree John Redwood, I think there is a case for perhaps not having all your big hitters in the Shadow Cabinet, it is useful for them to be on the back benches criticising the government, without it looking to party political. ie criticising them for what they are getting wrong, and not just seen to be doing it for points scoring. Plus Fallon could not apply as much public pressure for tax cuts if he was in the Shadow Cabinet, as far from looking like a government in waiting, it would look like our top team was dis united over our direction, which I believe would be a bad image to go with, and Labour would seize on it.

    Daniel, I agree with your point again there, and I think that is being rather underestimated interestingly in another poll where we have just a 9% lead, interestingly the Lib Dems have dropped to just 9%, I still think the polls are very volatile at the moment, and we cannot get carried away (at all in any case) but particularly until we see steady 43% for the Conservatives.

    John, I would be amazed if you guys had a 16% lead in a poll, and it didn’t get a mention on your blog.

    I firmly believe that the next election is won. I have stated ever since Cameron took power, and all the way through last summer, that it will be a hung parliament, and I stand by that prediction now, and will even place a wager on it if you would like!?

    Moreover, John in terms of actual grass root activism, you should perhaps have a look at the Social Action projects put in place by Conservative Candidates all around the region. This for me emphasises what Compassionate Conservatism, is about even if we do not win the seats or the election, we will have had a positive impact upon the local community.

    Right enough procastination from essays now, I have 2000 words still left to write.

  9. I’m sorry, but this chest-thumping, based on some rather dubious polls, is rather ‘distasteful’ to someone like myself, who simply wants his country back.

    We have had almost 11 years of these destroyers, liars, thieves and hypocrites.

    Frankly, I’m staggered that Cameron and co. aren’t ripping NuLabour a new arse at every turn – god knows they’re giving you enough ammunition.

    As far as I’m concerned, I want my civil liberties back (I can remember when we truly had freedom of speech in this country, and the right to assemble peaceably wherever we chose to – and that was whilst the IRA were blowing up pubs on a regular basis), I want a government that is truly accountable to me – not to anonymous goons in Brussels, I don’t want my life videoed, documented and catalogued because of ‘security concerns’, I want my freedom back, and finally I want a society that rewards initiative and drive and I want it *now*.

    There is *very* little the conservatives have made public that says that any of the above are being considered.

    Do not *presume* that you will get into power by default. I recognize to many of you that this is just student politics, and that somehow it’s ‘all a bit of a laugh’. It is not – this country is perilously close to being a police state, and that is definitely not a laughing matter.

  10. Tony,

    Polls are a good indicator of public opinion, especially if they show a trend.

    Of course we won’t get into power by default, although I suppose it’s possible. Rather, we will get in because we have a package of policies and a direction that appeals to a wider electorate.

    I personally don’t think this is a bit of a laugh. I’m quite serious about the need for a Conservative government.

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