Ok, the blogosphere is going to over analyse this to unbelievable proportions today. I have just made this comment on ConservativeHome.com and this is all I will say on the matter:
Labour seats of over 11′000 and 18′000, majorities cut in half and by two thirds. We came third which I can see why people think is disappointing.
But how people can be questioning Cameron’s leadership I find utterly ludicrous, he has been ahead in the polls for 18 months, only just slipping behind to Brown (who will have been planning his first hundred days when Cameron was still at Uni!!)
A lot of the commenters [on ConservativeHome.com] seem great at casting their mind to Thatcher and further backwards!
Can they just think back to May in the local elections (which or unless I am not mistaken no-one has mentioned!) when we obtained 41% of the vote compared to Labour 26%. In addition we obtained over 900 councillors, this is when a wide range of the country were voting.
Cameron is working, anyone who wants to revert back to the old traditional policies should perhaps think back to before Cameron. They might have liked the policies but since 1997, no-one could even be bothered to listen to us.
20/07/2007 at 11:51 |
Here here!!
20/07/2007 at 12:15 |
Agreed. I have no doubt that Cameron is the right man to lead the party, however this is not to say that I don’t have a few issues with him. Reagrdless i think that the by-election results are a little disappointing but we shouldn’t be too disappointed after all they were Labour seats to begin with and as you rightly point out the majorities have been slashed which could be helpful at the next general election whenever that may be!
20/07/2007 at 12:16 |
It’s extremely foolish to pretend that these are anything other than bad results for us. We failed significantly to increase our vote in either seat, despite us being half way through a third term Labour government. That is unprecedented for an opposition party. Even Kinnock got the knack of winning by-elections.
You may well be right, to coin a phrase, that ‘there is no alternative’ but I’m afraid wishful thinking is not going to win us the next election whilst an honest appraisal of where we are and why, just might.
20/07/2007 at 12:30 |
That middle of a third term argument just doesn’t wash it is a new fresh PM still within three three weeks of coming to power!
Lessons need to be learnt from this by election, as we should take stock of every election, whether good or bad. I have been in Ealing and it was much better organised than Bromley and Chislehurst was this time last year. Where our majority dropped by 10′500!
Therefore this result can be seen I believe as a lot better than this one and be an indication that we are improving!
20/07/2007 at 13:41 |
‘Improvement’ is hardly a cause for getting the bunting out when we still have fewer MP’s than Michael Foot managed in 1983. If we can’t improve from rock bottom, we might as well give up. The ‘improvement’ was 0.19% in Sedgefield and 0.9% in Southall. Of course, if you choose to compare the results with even more disastrous by-elections like Bromley, I’m sure you can find cause for comfort. In the 1974-79 parliament, we won seats like Walsall and Workington in by-elections. There was no talk then of ’safe Labour seats’. These results are a wake-up call that we ignore at our peril. They were bad, bad, bad and there’s no pretending otherwise.
20/07/2007 at 14:15 |
The fact we have so few MPs is not Cameron’s fault, if your looking at leadership it is Hague, IDS and Howard. Look where those policies got us.
Cameron is still fresh and new and is making a huge difference to the electorate, just because we did not win a seat which has been Labour since the 30s, or the former PMs Seat, I do not believe is cause for panic!
I agree with you there are lessons to be learnt, and by no stretch were they good results, but I feel strongly that they were far from ‘bad, bad, bad’ as you describe them!
20/07/2007 at 14:33 |
Of course Cameron isn’t responsible for our lamentable number of MP’s. The point is that 2005 was a very, very low point and to improve by less than 1% on a very bad result, is itself, very poor.
Cameron is coming to be seen as insubstantial and, for an aspiring P.M., that’s electoral poison.
20/07/2007 at 17:00 |
you cant judge anything on 80,000 people in london
20/07/2007 at 18:08 |
I agree completely Joseph, and in time Gareth when the policy reports come through as they will do over the coming months I think we will see a more subsantial Cameron!
20/07/2007 at 19:11 |
Well giving hanging powers to traffic wardens would be a better idea than free cash for married couples.
20/07/2007 at 20:28 |
Admittedly, I expect Gordon was planning his first 100 day when he was still at Uni…
21/07/2007 at 16:57 |
lol!! Fair point Pete, are you planning your first hundred days now too???
22/07/2007 at 22:07 |
The only thing I will say on this is the Dave Cameron’s Tories must be desperatley disapointed to not have increased their share of the vote. After all Cameron himself made 5 visits to the constituency and the Tories had 150 paid organisers working in the constituency in the lead up to the by-election. Labour had less then 100.
What I saw in Ealing from the Tories was pretty dire. Tony Lit had lost all credibility in the last week before the election. Only a couple of days before polling day Tory leaflets were still banging on about the 5 Labour Councilliors who defected, an issue I think very few voters were interested in. I did find it strange though the Tories could find nothing positive to say about their own man.
Finally it looks like the Tories have some work to do. The electoral calculus is currently predicting a Labour majority of 84. Admittedly this is off the back of a Lib Dem wipeout with the loss of, among others; Simon Hughes, John Hemming and Lorely Burt. They would be down to 19. Labour would be up 21 seats to 367 and the Tories would be up 22 seats to 231. Above all else the polls are showing the Lib Dems are struggling. Ironically the Lib Dems strong showing in Ealing will probably help Campbell hold out against his detractors.
23/07/2007 at 10:09 |
I know, let’s all wishfully think we’re going to win the next election and then it will definitely happen.