Labour are receding…

        

Thursday was truly bad for Labour. They tried to put a positive spin on it, coming out with the usual line, “We’re in our third term, and the results aren’t as bad as they could have been”. The BBC was willing to swallow it, but in truth there’s no hiding just how awful these results are for Labour. I have to say, the most satisfying result is the one in Scotland. Let’s not forget, it was this Labour Government that gave the Scots devolution. After 293 years of rule from Westminster, Edinburgh was granted its own Parliament. The policy was pioneered by Gordon Brown, the Scottish born, Labour MP for Kirkcaldy, Chancellor of the Exchequer, and future Prime Minister. The irony is delicious. If Brown can’t even depend on his native countrymen, who can he depend on?

I think it’s fair to say he can’t depend on the English middle class, which is a shame, because these swing voters will make or break Labour’s majority at the general election. Labour hardly exists in the south and they were swept out of the Midlands, with Birmingham pushed even further out of reach. Even the North brought bad news; Hull, Blackburn, Oldham, and Sheffield, all fell from Labour’s grasp. If this is anything to go by Labour will be satisfied with a hung parliament at the next election.

I’m left pondering how much of an indictment this is on Gordon Brown. Voters must know that this man stands to be Prime Minister within a matter of weeks, and the results indicate they are less than impressed with the idea. If this is the case, then it throws into question the much-anticipated Brown bounce. It is thought that like John Major in 1990, Brown’s succession will produce a bounce in Labour’s popularity. However, I would point out that no one actually expected Margaret Thatcher to resign, nor did they expect John Major to succeed her. Also, in 1990 John Major wasn’t so major, but was still fairly new and fresh, and so his leadership was an unexpected and welcome change. Contrary to this, Gordon Brown’s move to Number Ten isn’t going to surprise anyone. The public have had more than a decade to build up a not so flattering impression of the Prime Minister in waiting. They are familiar with the man’s style, his clever tricks, and his grip over Government policy, and expect nothing different when he switches desks. It could be that the local election results are a signal to Labour that a Brown bounce is not at all inevitable, and are far from a springboard to a fourth term.