Labour MPs must be having second thoughts about the electability of their leader-in-waiting. Back in September Newsnight commissioned the US pollster Frank Luntz to question 30 voters composed of one third loyal labourites, another third labour leaners, and a final third who voted Conservative or Lib Dem at the last election but would consider switching to Labour in the future. The result was bad for Gordon Brown. In the end, only three out of the 30 voters said they would prefer Gordon Brown to be the next Prime Minister, while 17 voted for John Reid. The response of the perception panel to Brown was overwhelmingly negative. They agreed that he is an intellectual heavyweight, but by in large the panel identified Brown as tired, uncharismatic, and Machiavellian. Furthermore, even though they considered him an intellectual, not one of them had anything to say about his performance as Chancellor. This is odd considering we are constantly told that he is greatest Chancellor of modern times.
If Gordon Brown becomes leader of the Labour Party next year and therefore Prime Minister, as expected, he will have to face David Cameron at the next election. Cameron is young, charismatic and doesn’t carry any baggage, and so comes without the negative characteristics that the perception panel identified in Brown. This is a good start, and is backed up by the polls. Over at UK Polling Report the gap between Brown and Cameron seems to be widening. In September YouGov, in a forced choice question, asked voters if they would prefer a Labour Government led by Gordon Brown or a Conservative Government led by David Cameron. In this poll the Conservatives came out on top with a 7 point lead, and when the same question was asked this month their lead extended to 13 points. Unfortunately for Brown, there’s much more where this came from. All the leading Pollsters since the beginning of this year concerning voting intensions at the next election presupposing a Brown led Labour party and a Cameron led Conservative party, have put the Conservatives ahead of Labour.
The evidence is therefore bleak for Gordon Brown, and the succession not at all certain.
03/11/2006 at 01:53 |
[...] In a previous post I asked whether Labour MPs were concerned about the electability of Gordon Brown if he becomes leader of the Party. I pointed to a survey conducted by Frank Luntz for the BBC where only 3 out of the 30 labour and swing voters questioned preferred Gordon Brown over the possible alternatives. Enough bad news really, but there was plenty more. In every major poll conducted since the start of 2006, a Gordon Brown led Labour Government have come out behind a Cameron led Conservative Government. I thought that if these polls continued there might be a lively leadership election after Mr Blair’s resignation next summer. But according to the BBC Brown is unlikely to face a realistic challenge for the leadership. The BBC’s political editor Nick Robinson, has reported that some senior Labour figures have come to believe Brown is “simply unstoppable”. He added: “We’ve gone from ‘anyone but Gordon’ to the Labour Party thinking ‘it’s almost certainly Gordon’.” But what exactly has changed? According to the polls Brown will find it difficult to compete with Cameron at the next election, this fact hasn’t changed. But then again, who are we to complain about that? [...]